Back in 2013, AUVSI raised some eyebrows with its bold predictions that when UAVs are integrated into the American airspace, the “… first three years of integration more than 70,000 jobs will be created in the United States with an economic impact of more than $13.6 billion. This benefit will grow through 2025 when we foresee more than 100,000 jobs created and economic impact of $82 billion.”

Some folks have taken issue with the report’s rosy predictions. As far as I can tell, their major objections are that one) all the guesswork in the report is a bunch of guesswork, and two) the report uses UAV integration in Japan to estimate economic impact in the US, which is a bad idea, because Japan is, you know, a different country.

I think of economic projections as belonging in the same category as old fashion analog compasses. They will point you vaguely in the correct direction (if you’re lucky and there’s no nearby magnetic interference), but it’s best not to regard them as being too precise. I hope anyone reading them has the same appreciation of their inherent limitations, so I think the criticism, while accurate, may be a little misplaced.

You can decide for yourself. Follow the links below for both the report and its critics.

• AUVSI’s The Economic Impact of Unmanned Aircraft Systems Integration in the United States
• Five Reasons the AUVSI Got Its Drone Market Forecast Wrong